Manchester City will win the Premier League while Manchester United will finish fourth, according to Bloomberg statistics

• Just one points separates City and Chelsea according to Bloomberg data
• Bloomberg take into account performances from numerous seasons
• Rankings are also adjusted to reflect transfer dealings in summer
• Each Premier League game is simulated 100,000 times for great accuracy
• United fourth, three points separate Arsenal (third) and Liverpool (fifth)
• Aston Villa out of Premier League for first time, with QPR and Burnley
• Three points separate 12th and 19th, could be closest PL season of all time 

 

Manchester City will come out on top in one of the closest Premier League title races of all time this season, closely followed by Chelsea, according to Bloomberg data.

The world's leaders in sports analytic technology revealed their annual season predictions on Wednesday, calculating the percentage probabilities for league finishes using match analysis.

Based on their accurate readings it should be a happy season for City especially, while their Manchester rivals are expected to make the top four under Louis van Gaal. But Aston Villa may be heading out of the Premier League for the first time...

The graphic suggests it should be a two-horse race for the trophy this year.

Manchester City are given a 38.7 per cent chance of retaining their title, while Chelsea are ranked at 38.4 per cent as Jose Mourinho looks to galvanise his new squad.

The nearest challengers are Arsenal (8.5 per cent), Manchester United (7.5 per cent) and Liverpool (5.8 per cent), whose Bloomberg rating will have decreased given the departure of star striker Luis Suarez this summer.

Tottenham and Everton are the only other teams valued as having even a slight chance of glory, with other teams chances ranked below 0.05 per cent after their Premier League fixtures were simulated 100,000 times.

The race for the Champions League should also be fascinating this season. As you would expect, City and Chelsea have a probability of over 90 per cent to finish in the top four.

Arsenal, whose value will have supplemented after their transfer dealings, are expected to be in tight competition with United and Liverpool to extend their 17-year stay in Europe's finest competition.

United suffered an uncharacteristic blip under David Moyes last season, but with Van Gaal at the helm they are down to beat their rivals to fourth place by just two points.

New signings Ander Herrera and Luke Shaw will help the cause at Old Trafford, and with more expected to arrive, don't be surprised to see the Red Devils move up the predicted league table as it is updated throughout the season.

Such is the helter-skelter of the Premier League, there are 12 teams who could be relegated according to the statistics.

Newcastle are in least danger, expected to finish eighth after some decent transfer action at St James' Park.

But for West Ham, Sunderland, Crystal Palace, Leicester, West Brom, Hull, Aston Villa, QPR and Burnley the table makes much more grim reading.

For the gap between 12th and 19th at the end of this season could be just three points, with the Clarets slightly adrift on 34 points. QPR will be joining them down with Villa after a solitary season in the top flight with Harry Redknapp.

Bloomberg's data system is aimed at beating the bookies, and with Burnley at 57.8 per cent to be relegated, it may be best to get your money on now.

As last year's season proved, the Premier League is anything but easy to predict. But given the detail here, don't be surprised to see City be looking down on the rest of the field come May.